It is always risky to look into the future and presume an outcome.
The direction of travel at a particular point in time may be clear. But the final destination and the time of arrival may be different matters.
It was widely presumed by many that Radio 4’s long wave transmissions would be stopping in the next few weeks.
Separate programmes on Radio 4 LW are about to stop – the Daily Service and Yesterday in Parliament will transfer to Radio 4 Extra.
Some low power Radio 4 medium wave transmitters, which were principally designed to aid reception in areas where the LW reception was not so robust, will indeed close next month.
But Radio 4 LW transmission isn’t quite dead yet.
It will stay on the air for the moment and efforts will continue to migrate the last LW listeners to FM or digital platforms before the signal finally goes.
If anything, you could accuse the BBC of undue overcaution when it comes to closing Radio 4 LW.
It’s now two years since the announcement that separate LW programmes were to end. This has been actively promoted on air for a year.
The decision to keep the transmitter itself alive for longer – linked to providing switching signals for some electricity meters – did not automatically imply keeping Radio 4 LW on air. A retuning loop, for instance, could have been broadcast instead.
But clearly continuing with the service for a little longer is considered viable and worthwhile – though just how many benefit in practice is not public knowledge. It’s probably very low.
The transfer of the Daily Service and Yesterday in Parliament to Radio 4 Extra appears to cast doubt over whether proposals announced two years ago to turn Radio 4 Extra into an on-demand, online service will still go ahead. It sounds safe as a linear service for the foreseeable future too.
Anyone without a digital radio or smart speaker will be advised they can listen to the Daily Service or Yesterday in Parliament via Radio 4 Extra on Freeview.
Those who confidently predict the end of Freeview and linear BBC services in the medium term would be wise to consider all this.
It will be interesting to see how Freely – the internet equivalent of Freeview – develops.
To succeed it will need to offer consumers a strong proposition.
They will need to be convinced that it is a service worth buying – perhaps UHD or a seamless bridge between linear and on-demand services.
Even if Freeview does become a legacy I cannot imagine it going until only a tiny number of people are using it. And to simply assume it will become a legacy is quite a jump.
A few years ago some in the radio industry were keen to set a date for switching off all FM transmissions to encourage digital radio. How does that look now? Even prehistoric LW is being kept open now for a tiny audience.
Plenty of people still seem happy enough to watch SD Freeview channels.
In the event that Sky eventually ceases satellite transmissions and Freesat consequently becomes unviable, I can just imagine the BBC and others pointing out that their channels are still on Freeview.
Freesat was initially launched to help people in the areas where only analogue TV was broadcast prior to switchover.
It is also worth cautioning against presuming that the end of the TV Licence is near even if some evolution may be possible.
The unveiling of the government’s expert panel on alternatives received hardly any attention.
One reason for that, of course, is that there is the small matter of the General Election.
At the point of writing, it would seem that there is little chance of the Conservatives remaining in power and a strong possibility of Labour forming the next government.
The idea of a Labour government abolishing the BBC as we know it or pushing it down a commercially funded route is for the birds.
For all the rows it has had with the BBC over the years, its support for the principle of a publicly funded public service broadcaster has never been in doubt.
In contrast, some on the right have always been highly sceptical or downright hostile even though more pragmatic politicians have always managed to keep them in check.
All mainstream political parties are broad churches and care about undecided “swing” voters as well as their core supporters. They need to do that to win and retain power.
Abolishing the BBC as we know it is not a vote winner despite what some in echo chambers may imagine.
And please do not confuse popular programmes or hits with the BBC becoming more commercial.
That is the easiest form of attack for opponents. Some would love nothing more than to see the BBC reduced to niche, specialist and deadly serious output for small audiences. Mainstream broadcasting would be left to the market.
To suggest popular hits should not be part of the mix is to suggest a fundamentally different role for the BBC.
What matters is whether these shows are any good or not.
And is just as much importance being attached to the more serious or innovative content which is more obviously distinct from a market-driven schedule.
Acknowledgements
PICTURED: MW radio transmitter. COPYRIGHT: The TV Room.