You can forget about terrestrial TV being switched off in the next few years.
The Culture Minister Sir Chris Bryant as good as said that in remarks to the Sunday Mirror last week.
To be clear, he did not explicitly say that Freeview would be kept going past 2033.
What he did say though was that everyone must have access to free-to-air television.
Does anyone really imagine that this objective would be compatible with switching off terrestrial broadcasting in the near term?
Would it really be feasible to ensure every home in the land had unmetered internet access which is free at the point of use within a few years?
And would it really be feasible to upgrade every TV set to Freely by one means or another?
Common sense dictates that many of those most dependent on terrestrial TV are older or vulnerable in some way.
Freely has many attractions but it is not taking the market by storm so far.
Similarly it is understandable that broadcasters may wish to move towards internet delivery – clearly it is cheaper to run and more sustainable than the traditional terrestrial transmitter network.
But as long as universality of access is a prerequisite, turning off terrestrial TV soon is unrealistic.
The question is what might happen organically if the vast majority of people move away from terrestrial TV.
Imagine if in, say, 5 years time it is clear that only a vulnerable minority is dependent on Freeview.
That is the point when talking about a scheme to protect the vulnerable and allow a switchover becomes realistic.
Like digital switchover 15 years ago, it would be a non event for many. Few were watching analogue by choice other than the vulnerable and those unable to receive Freeview prior to switchover.
A few years ago, 2025 seemed like being the point where channels like CBBC would go online only.
We are still waiting for confirmation over the date Radio 4 Long Wave will finally shut.
Its demise has been spoken about for a long time.
Yet we are still waiting – in part because of the widely reported issues which have made it impossible to completely switch off the switching service for some electricity meters.
Once this switch off happens will the BBC finally set a date for turning off long wave?
Or will it carry on until the last prehistoric long wave transmitter equipment finally packs in?
Whether the full Freeview service has a long term future depends on many things.
Will the operators of the commercial multiplexes want to renew their licences after 2033? Will they still be viable?
Clearly there is still a question mark over the HD multiplex for the moment too.
But as things stand I can see no realistic way of ensuring universal free access to the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and 5 in the next few years which does not involve Freeview.
Time for an explicit commitment from politicians to keep it open or at least confirm what thresholds would need to be crossed before closure can be contemplated.
Acknowledgements
PICTURED: Divis tramsmitting station (Belfast). COPYRIGHT: Nathan Dane.